Even if the government shutdown ends soon, the aftershocks could keep U.S. air travel disrupted for months — or even years.
Until a deal is officially reached, airlines must continue following the Federal Aviation Administration’s emergency order to gradually reduce flight capacity by up to 10% at 40 major U.S. airports. Starting Tuesday, 6% of flights will be cut.
The order requires airlines to cancel flights at least seven days in advance, and once passengers are notified, those flights can’t be easily reinstated.
“It’s not easy to cancel randomly every day on 10% of our schedules and keep preserving those cancellations,” said Eash Sundaram, former JetBlue Airways executive and current president of Utpata Ventures. “Airlines should be thinking about how hard it’s going to hit them in the next two to three weeks — and how long recovery will take after that.”
Recovery Timeline Could Stretch Beyond Thanksgiving
Aviation consultant Kit Darby said that if air traffic controllers return to work soon, airlines might bounce back within “a week or two.”
“If we can’t get it done this week, we’re starting to get to the point where it won’t be fully recovered by Thanksgiving,” Darby warned. “If they do it this week, we can be close to fully recovered by then.”
But for now, passengers’ travel plans depend entirely on lawmakers’ ability to strike a deal as the holiday season approaches.
Controllers May Not Return Right Away
Even after the government reopens, many FAA air traffic controllers might not come back immediately.
Those who have worked unpaid throughout the shutdown won’t receive back pay right away, and some may choose to delay their return.
The National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) said several members have taken on second jobs to stay afloat. After the 2019 shutdown, it took about two and a half months for full back pay to arrive.
President Donald Trump on Monday demanded controllers “get back to work NOW,” offering a $10,000 bonus to those who didn’t take time off. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy echoed that promise, saying he’d work with Congress to reward controllers.
“Controllers go above and beyond,” said Darby. “They’ve been doing extra hours, extra days, and despite being poorly treated, that’s just their nature.”
Some Controllers May Quit for Good
The shutdown has accelerated retirement and resignations among air traffic controllers.
Before the shutdown, about four controllers retired per day. Now, 20 to 25 retire daily, according to Secretary Duffy. The Department of Transportation had previously offered retention bonuses to keep retirement-aged controllers on the job — an effort now undercut by the prolonged crisis.
“It’s going to be harder for me to come back after the shutdown and have more controllers controlling the airspace,” Duffy said. “This will live on in air travel well beyond when the government reopens.”
Union leader Nick Daniels said the FAA will need to assess how many controllers have retired or resigned once the shutdown ends.
Training the Next Generation
Before the shutdown began, the FAA was already short more than 3,000 controllers. A hiring push was underway, with over 2,000 recruits joining this year and record numbers at the FAA’s academy in Oklahoma City.
Classes have continued during the shutdown, but some students are now reconsidering their career choice after seeing how federal employees go unpaid during political stalemates. A few trainees have already dropped out.
Duffy said the stipends supporting trainees are also running low — a situation he called “cataclysmic” if not resolved soon.
A Prolonged Shutdown Could Cripple Thanksgiving Travel
If a deal doesn’t materialize quickly, the impact on Thanksgiving travel could be devastating.
Over the weekend, eight Senate Democrats joined Republicans to advance a funding bill, but the House must still approve it before it reaches the president’s desk.
Duffy warned that without a deal, air travel could slow “to a trickle.”
“You’ll have a few flights taking off and landing, but for the thousands of flights that move people across the country for Thanksgiving — it’s not going to happen,” he said.
Aviation analyst Henry Harteveldt agreed, saying a resolution by the end of this week is essential. If resolved later, airlines may not have enough time to restore schedules before the holidays.
Duffy even hinted that flight capacity could be cut up to 20% if the shutdown drags on.
“If that happens,” Harteveldt warned, “the U.S. air transportation system will be crippled. It will be very, very difficult for travelers to get where they’re going for Thanksgiving.”
